Note hind-20261011-001 · Hindsight · measurement
Week of 2026-10-05
to 2026-10-11.
Published 2026-10-13T12:30:03Z. Fingerprint (SHA-256): 8b51d20f7816ba2f2b90c34e21bc9844ed30dcdba5a3bc59a94049bce377dcb1. Shares are percentages of all stories in the fixed collection that week.
Header
| denominator stories | 63240 |
|---|---|
| desk | hindsight |
| field | Energy and the grid, as a public argument |
| method | backtest: over 47 reconstructed weeks the forecast was closer than the four-week mean in 0.53 of weeks; mean error 0.066 against 0.066 points; skill guard pass · filing rule: claims-policy-v3: forecast = median4 · reading: Claims test whether the record is auditable. The backtest does not show skill over the four-week mean. · replaced: claims-policy-v2 (persistence) was closer than the mean in only 0.32 of weeks and was replaced before any claim was filed |
| period end | 2026-10-11 |
| period start | 2026-10-05 |
| quota used | 309 |
| reconstructed history | 2025-10-06 to 2026-09-28 (52 weeks, retrieved after the fact; used for baselines and dynamics, never for claims) |
| versions | articles: articles-v1 · collection: collection-v1 · collector: collect-v1 · dynamics: dynamics-v1 · response: response-v1 · topics: topics-v1 |
What gained share
| topic | share | last | trailing mean | change | numerator | denominator | thin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| extreme weather | 0.27 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 172 | 63240 | no |
| wildfire liability | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.13 | -0.02 | 47 | 63240 | no |
| storage | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 30 | 63240 | no |
| natural gas | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.27 | -0.04 | 168 | 63240 | no |
| ferc rto markets | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.05 | -0.05 | 32 | 63240 | no |
| nuclear | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.15 | -0.05 | 69 | 63240 | no |
| transmission permitting | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.10 | -0.06 | 56 | 63240 | no |
| state regulation | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.18 | -0.06 | 76 | 63240 | no |
| electricity prices | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.37 | -0.07 | 244 | 63240 | no |
| grid reliability | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.33 | -0.13 | 138 | 63240 | no |
| renewables policy | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.55 | -0.16 | 267 | 63240 | no |
| data center load | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.55 | -0.20 | 316 | 63240 | no |
A larger fraction of coverage is not the same as a rewritten article.
What is only being repeated
| clusters | mean outlets per cluster | n | rate | repeated | topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 4.53 | 168 | 0.46 | 77 | extreme weather |
| 3 | 8 | 72 | 0.33 | 24 | natural gas |
| 2 | 10 | 75 | 0.27 | 20 | renewables policy |
| 3 | 9.33 | 152 | 0.18 | 28 | electricity prices |
| 8 | 5.75 | 316 | 0.15 | 47 | data center load |
| 2 | 2.50 | 51 | 0.10 | 5 | grid reliability |
| 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | nuclear |
| 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0 | state regulation |
| 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | wildfire liability |
| 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | ferc rto markets |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | transmission permitting |
What attention did
| series | week total | last week | trailing median | ratio | direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wp.2021 Texas power crisis.daily | 1680 | 1776 | 1900.50 | 0.88 | down |
| wp.Data center.daily | 12205 | 13062 | 13749 | 0.89 | down |
| wp.Electric Reliability Council of Texas.daily | 515 | 510 | 572 | 0.90 | up |
| wp.Electric power transmission.daily | 1710 | 2059 | 1723 | 0.99 | down |
| wp.Electrical grid.daily | 1284 | 1347 | 1510.50 | 0.85 | down |
| wp.Electricity pricing.daily | 116 | 146 | 155 | 0.75 | down |
| wp.Energy in the United States.daily | 628 | 569 | 743.50 | 0.84 | up |
| wp.Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.daily | 399 | 509 | 464.50 | 0.86 | down |
| wp.Grid energy storage.daily | 414 | 524 | 521.50 | 0.79 | down |
| wp.Heat wave.daily | 1373 | 1378 | 2128.50 | 0.65 | down |
| wp.Natural gas in the United States.daily | 229 | 250 | 258 | 0.89 | down |
| wp.North American Electric Reliability Corporation.daily | 391 | 472 | 442.50 | 0.88 | down |
| wp.Nuclear power in the United States.daily | 1662 | 1783 | 1904.50 | 0.87 | down |
| wp.Offshore wind power.daily | 607 | 630 | 637 | 0.95 | down |
| wp.PJM Interconnection.daily | 1821 | 1495 | 1512 | 1.20 | up |
| wp.Public Safety Power Shutoff.daily | — | 5 | 5 | — | — |
| wp.Public utilities commission.daily | 99 | 114 | 115 | 0.86 | down |
| wp.Renewable energy in the United States.daily | 295 | 395 | 409.50 | 0.72 | down |
| wp.Small modular reactor.daily | 2922 | 3661 | 3073 | 0.95 | down |
| wp.Three Mile Island Nuclear Generating Station.daily | 1922 | 1995 | 2014.50 | 0.95 | down |
Pageviews and search say people looked. They do not say people agreed.
Chatter
No chatter series.
Cross-check
| series | week total | last week | trailing median | ratio | direction | same direction as top mover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fr.doe.grid.daily | 4 | 1 | 2.50 | 1.60 | up | yes |
| fr.ferc.all.daily | 28 | 25 | 27.50 | 1.02 | up | yes |
| fr.ferc.transmission.daily | 17 | 13 | 11.50 | 1.48 | up | yes |
| fr.nrc.all.daily | 13 | 5 | 9.50 | 1.37 | up | yes |
| eia.demand.us48.daily | 79593373 | 82233259 | 82236612.50 | 0.97 | down | no |
| gi.bills.energy.weekly | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| gi.crec.grid.weekly | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
What has no second series
Nothing to show for this period.
Claims
No claims filed. The claim log opens for this desk at Release 4.
Differs
| last week | data_center_load, electricity_prices, ferc_rto_markets |
|---|---|
| this week | extreme_weather, wildfire_liability, storage |
Dynamics
| data center load | D1 onset: — · D6 reignitions: 0 · n weeks: 53 · note: no burst |
|---|---|
| electricity prices | D1 onset: 2025-12-08 · D2 height ratio: 1.55 · D2 peak: 2025-12-15 · D3 half life weeks: — · D3 note: decay not observed yet · D3 points: 43 · D3 r2: — · D4 span: 2 · D5 persistence: 4: 0.89 · 12: 0.71 · D6 reignitions: 1 · n weeks: 53 |
| extreme weather | D1 onset: 2026-01-19 · D2 height ratio: 8.35 · D2 peak: 2026-01-26 · D3 half life weeks: 0.28 · D3 note: — · D3 points: 37 · D3 r2: 0.58 · D4 span: 3 · D5 persistence: 4: 0.24 · 12: 0.10 · D6 reignitions: 2 · n weeks: 53 |
| ferc rto markets | D1 onset: 2026-01-12 · D2 height ratio: 3.22 · D2 peak: 2026-01-19 · D3 half life weeks: 0.33 · D3 note: — · D3 points: 38 · D3 r2: 0.19 · D4 span: 3 · D5 persistence: 4: 0.33 · 12: 0.34 · D6 reignitions: 2 · n weeks: 53 |
| grid reliability | D1 onset: 2026-01-19 · D2 height ratio: 2.25 · D2 peak: 2026-01-19 · D3 half life weeks: 1.12 · D3 note: — · D3 points: 38 · D3 r2: 0.49 · D4 span: 2 · D5 persistence: 4: 0.49 · 12: 0.38 · D6 reignitions: 1 · n weeks: 53 |
| natural gas | D1 onset: 2026-03-16 · D2 height ratio: 2.15 · D2 peak: 2026-03-23 · D3 half life weeks: 1.84 · D3 note: — · D3 points: 29 · D3 r2: 0.59 · D4 span: 2 · D5 persistence: 4: 0.49 · 12: 0.49 · D6 reignitions: 1 · n weeks: 53 |
| nuclear | D1 onset: — · D6 reignitions: 0 · n weeks: 53 · note: no burst |
| renewables policy | D1 onset: — · D6 reignitions: 0 · n weeks: 53 · note: no burst |
| state regulation | D1 onset: 2025-12-15 · D2 height ratio: 1.70 · D2 peak: 2025-12-22 · D3 half life weeks: — · D3 note: decay not observed yet · D3 points: 42 · D3 r2: — · D4 span: 2 · D5 persistence: 4: 0.64 · 12: 0.58 · D6 reignitions: 1 · n weeks: 53 |
| storage | D1 onset: — · D6 reignitions: 0 · n weeks: 53 · note: no burst |
| transmission permitting | D1 onset: 2026-01-12 · D2 height ratio: 1.63 · D2 peak: 2026-01-12 · D3 half life weeks: — · D3 note: decay not observed yet · D3 points: 39 · D3 r2: — · D4 span: 2 · D5 persistence: 4: 0.82 · 12: 0.70 · D6 reignitions: 1 · n weeks: 53 |
| wildfire liability | D1 onset: 2025-12-15 · D2 height ratio: 3.12 · D2 peak: 2025-12-15 · D3 half life weeks: — · D3 note: decay not observed yet · D3 points: 43 · D3 r2: — · D4 span: 2 · D5 persistence: 4: 0.20 · 12: 0.38 · D6 reignitions: 2 · n weeks: 53 |
Notes, not calls.