Field Intelligence Notes
Field Intelligence Notes. A desk that measures what a field is talking about, and scores whether that reading held.
We file notes on a field. We do not pick stocks, and we do not print a probability until the record can carry it.
Who it is for
Questions come from practice. Methods come from research. Results go back to practice, with the misses left in.
Journalists, analysts, policy and communications teams. A weekly note says what gained share, what is only repeated, what attention did, and what no second series confirms. It does not say what the public thinks.
See a desk →Fixed corpora, frozen weeks, rules filed before the results, and every miss kept. The method page lists the measures, the data dictionary and the validation tests, so a reading can be checked against its sources.
The method for researchers →Every claim has a fixed sentence, a named measure, a deadline and a simple baseline. A script resolves it against a public source. The log shows what held and what missed.
Open the claim log →Desks
A desk that does not own a corpus does not file. Elections is the first field and the house method. Hindsight and Murphy have fixed their sources and collect every day; each publishes weekly notes once a full week of live collection is frozen, and files claims only after its readiness check passes. Buzz opens last.
House and Senate, as now
Owns: Polls, betting prices, Compass, Tide, the error table.
Energy and the grid, as a public argument
Owns: Coverage share, project announcements, what officials have and have not said.
AI, as a public argument
Owns: Capex and adoption language, novelty versus repetition.
Health technology, as a public argument
Owns: Clinical and hospital language, quantified versus adjectival claims.
The claim log
A claim is one sentence about a field, with a named measure, a deadline, a kill condition and a simple baseline. Past the deadline is a miss. Misses stay up. No claims have been filed yet. An empty log is the honest starting point.
| Desk | Open | Resolved | Missed | Void |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elections | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hindsight | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Buzz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Murphy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Election forecasts published before the claim log opened stay on the election pages with their own error tables. Open the claim log →
Closed experiment
This site used to run a practice-trade experiment. It has ended. Items still waiting at closure were not scored and are not part of the claim log.
See the archive →House and Senate races: polls, betting prices, Compass, Tide and the historical error table. Ranges are withheld when they are too sure of themselves.
Read the election field →Energy and the grid, as a public argument. Weekly measurement notes; claims open after the readiness check.
Desk page →Health technology, as a public argument. Weekly measurement notes; claims open after the readiness check.
Desk page →