iIntuitionist-Fin Field Intelligence Notes

Claim log

Filed, resolved, missed
or void. All of it stays up.

Every claim from every desk is listed here with its status and its full history. Nothing is removed and no claim is edited after it is filed.

The log is open and empty. No claims have been filed yet. Claims will appear here when a desk owns a corpus and its first measurements reproduce.
Claims by desk and status · checked Oct 24, 2026 at 03:09 UTC
DeskOpenResolvedMissedVoid
Elections0000
Hindsight0000
Buzz0000
Murphy0000

Election forecasts published before this log opened stay on the election pages with their own historical error tables. They are not copied into this log, because they were not filed with a deadline, a baseline and a resolution source written down at the time.

Rules

How a claim
leaves the open list.

Resolved

A script fetched the named source and the measure did what the claim said, by the deadline.

Missed

The measure did not, the kill condition fired, or the deadline passed. A late result is added to the record; it does not erase the miss.

Void

Only for a failure of the named data source, with the reason published. A claim that turned out wrong is a miss, never a void.

What every claim must carry →